Christmas peak: how to plan temporary headcount
The retail peak isn't December: it starts on Black Friday and runs to New Year, six weeks in all. The most common mistake is planning headcount for the week before Christmas, when the load begins far earlier.
What the peak actually looks like
Traffic jumps in the last week of November with Black Friday and then doesn't fall back: December stays elevated throughout and peaks on the final weekend before Christmas. Then come returns and stocktaking, which run into January.
So you're not planning for one peak but for a six-week elevated plateau with two spikes.
How to plan the headcount
Break it down by week rather than treating it as one block.
- Black Friday week: a short, intense spike, weighted to the weekend
- First two weeks of December: steadily elevated and predictable
- Final week before Christmas: peak load, where reserves matter
- Between the holidays and January: returns and stocktaking, smaller crew for longer
The most common mistake
The classic error is estimating December headcount in September and fixing it. In reality traffic deviates from plan week by week, and a fixed crew is either too small or dead payroll cost.
It works much better to reserve the capacity in advance but call off the actual numbers weekly. That way the peak week has reserves and the quiet week doesn't cost you idle hours.
The takeaway
Reserve capacity in September or October, but call off headcount weekly: December traffic never follows the September plan.
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